Given the burgeoning literature in the area identifying the characteristics of those sexual offenders most likely to recidivate, it has been difficult to sort out which qualities are most important. Hanson and Bussiere (Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology (1998) 66(2): 348-362) conducted a meta-analysis of 61 follow-up studies, dating to December 31, 1995, which presented findings regarding the factors that related to sexual offender recidivism. Studies had to identify characteristics that related to sexual reoffending, report the recidivism data for offenders, and include a follow-up of sexual offenders.
The strength of predictors identified were presented for sexual offense recidivism, nonsexual violent recidivism, and general (any) recidivism. Three major categories of predictors were considered across these types of recidivism (i.e., criminal lifestyle, sexual deviance, and psychological maladjustment). In addition, the authors also considered two clinical factors, treatment compliance and "clinical presentation." Generally speaking, the qualities that relate to general recidivism and nonsexual violent recidivism are similar. These factors include age (young), juvenile delinquency, and the presence of prior offenses.
The factors which emerged as the strongest predictors of sexual offense recidivism focused on offenders' sexual deviance. In particular, those factors included deviant sexual interests, the existence of prior sexual offenses, and offenders' choice of victims (i.e., boys and strangers). The presence of Antisocial Personality Disorder and failure to complete treatment also were related to sexual recidivism. Importantly, many factors, including demographic variables, general offending, and a negative clinical presentation, including low remorse and low victim empathy, were not related to sexual recidivism.
It is unfortunate that, in some cases, finer distinctions could not be drawn between factors such as specific types of substance abuse and a diagnosis of Antisocial Personality Disorder versus the presence of Psychopathy as assessed by the Psychopathy Checklist. Studies answering these questions will bolster the ability to predict recidivism based on available history.
SEX OFFENDER RECIDIVISM OFFENDER RISK FACTORS
- Deviant sexual interests
- Prior sex offenses
- Boys, strangers as victims
- Antisocial personality diagnosis
- Failure to complete treatment
